COVID-19 AND THE FUTURE OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM INDUSTRY: A SUPPLY-SIDE PERSPECTIVE

The tourism industry is struggling to recover and overcome the shortfalls due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The research identified the determinants to consider in the future from a South African supply-side perspective. An online questionnaire was employed in 2020. Exploratory factor analyses identified the dependent (the perceived future of the industry after COVID-19) and independent variables: ways to reach suppliers' target market(s) during the pandemic, the predicted adopted strategies after COVID-19 and the perceived sector risk. Linear regression analyses revealed the significant variables that provide guidelines for managing the industry's future. © 2022 Editura Universitatii din Oradea. All rights reserved.

Assessing and intervening with children who have been traumatized

Nearly a billion children have had their lives disrupted by the 2019-2021 SARS CoV 2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2;COVID-19) global pandemic, with some estimates suggesting that the economic devastation may result in nearly 725 million children living in poverty in the absence of any mitigating policies (UNICEF, 2020). Given the likelihood of trauma exposure and the almost certainty of being impacted by the global pandemic, it is vital for educators, parents, and public health officials to have a better understanding of the neuropsychological factors underscoring both trauma and resilience in order to better meet the needs of our students. After all, not all children exposed to trauma and adversity experience detrimental outcomes, and many children are capable of devising internal coping and resilience strategies to grow from these experiences. This chapter discusses the various types of trauma that children typically encounter, how trauma impacts key regions in the brain responsible for learning and social-skills development, offer assessment strategies, and suggest targeted intervention strategies for schools and parents in light of some of the unprecedented circumstances our children must face. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Insights on the current status of effective strategies for waste management in COVID-19 pandemic: challenges and opportunities

A large number of people got infected and many lost their lives due to COVID-19. The increased volume and source-shuffling of the waste generated during the pandemic have challenged the current waste management facilities. The major sources of infectious waste not only include hospitals but also houses and quarantine facilities that lack in source-management thereby increasing the spread of the virus. This article focuses on waste collection and disposal techniques as major aspects of COVID-19 waste management. Also, it discusses the various waste disinfection technologies along with waste management strategies formulated by different organisations. The non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies have also been identified. Alongside this, various challenges and opportunities in COVID-19 waste management are reviewed. Accordingly, recommendations to achieve efficient waste management are stated. Waste management in case of such a pandemic requires proper segregation, storage, collection and treatment. Usage of multiple processes like pyrolysis, chemical treatment, microwave and radio wave is needed to be found for treatment of infectious waste. Increased amount of mixed waste creates the need to have method that is flexible enough. Large amount of PPE waste needs to be taken care of. Development of materials that can provide hygiene and have recyclability is essential. © 2023 Indian Institute of Chemical Engineers.

The effect of rigorous, targeted, and tiered RTI to overcome the poverty performance achievement gap

National, state, and local governmental authorities have researched and reported the impacts of poverty on academic performance for multiple decades, providing guidance, legislation, accountability, equal access initiatives, and continuous monitoring for educators to address the ongoing dilemma. However, poverty performance achievement gaps are still widespread, and in many cases growing, despite the multitude of governmental policies and educational intervention practices. This qualitative research study analyzed the effect of rigorous, targeted, and tiered Response to Intervention (RTI) strategies in overcoming the poverty performance achievement gap in math and English language arts (ELA) on Indiana's ISTEP+ and ILEARN state-mandated assessments for 3rd and 4th-grade students in a Midwest public elementary school. Additionally, the study addressed poverty's impact on academic performance and poverty subgroup performance. The rigorous, targeted, and tiered (RTT) method was found to have statistically significant effects in math performance when controlling for poverty;however, interventions were not significant for ELA performance, even when controlling for poverty. Nevertheless, the study was conducted during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Surprisingly, the academic performance for the poverty and nonpoverty student groups in the treatment cohort was counter to the anticipated negative impact of the pandemic school shutdowns, intervention interruptions, and subsequent virtual learning environments. Academic institutions looking for intervention practices to address the learning needs or learning loss for poverty and nonpoverty students will find merit in the mitigation of learning loss by utilizing the RTT method;however, future research on the components of the RTT method is warranted. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

ModInterv COVID-19: An online platform to monitor the evolution of epidemic curves.

We present the software ModInterv as an informatics tool to monitor, in an automated and user-friendly manner, the evolution and trend of COVID-19 epidemic curves, both for cases and deaths. The ModInterv software uses parametric generalized growth models, together with LOWESS regression analysis, to fit epidemic curves with multiple waves of infections for countries around the world as well as for states and cities in Brazil and the USA. The software automatically accesses publicly available COVID-19 databases maintained by the Johns Hopkins University (for countries as well as states and cities in the USA) and the Federal University of Viçosa (for states and cities in Brazil). The richness of the implemented models lies in the possibility of quantitatively and reliably detecting the distinct acceleration regimes of the disease. We describe the backend structure of software as well as its practical use. The software helps the user not only to understand the current stage of the epidemic in a chosen location but also to make short term predictions as to how the curves may evolve. The app is freely available on the internet (http://fisica.ufpr.br/modinterv), thus making a sophisticated mathematical analysis of epidemic data readily accessible to any interested user.

The effect of rigorous, targeted, and tiered RTI to overcome the poverty performance achievement gap

National, state, and local governmental authorities have researched and reported the impacts of poverty on academic performance for multiple decades, providing guidance, legislation, accountability, equal access initiatives, and continuous monitoring for educators to address the ongoing dilemma. However, poverty performance achievement gaps are still widespread, and in many cases growing, despite the multitude of governmental policies and educational intervention practices. This qualitative research study analyzed the effect of rigorous, targeted, and tiered Response to Intervention (RTI) strategies in overcoming the poverty performance achievement gap in math and English language arts (ELA) on Indiana's ISTEP+ and ILEARN state-mandated assessments for 3rd and 4th-grade students in a Midwest public elementary school. Additionally, the study addressed poverty's impact on academic performance and poverty subgroup performance. The rigorous, targeted, and tiered (RTT) method was found to have statistically significant effects in math performance when controlling for poverty;however, interventions were not significant for ELA performance, even when controlling for poverty. Nevertheless, the study was conducted during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Surprisingly, the academic performance for the poverty and nonpoverty student groups in the treatment cohort was counter to the anticipated negative impact of the pandemic school shutdowns, intervention interruptions, and subsequent virtual learning environments. Academic institutions looking for intervention practices to address the learning needs or learning loss for poverty and nonpoverty students will find merit in the mitigation of learning loss by utilizing the RTT method;however, future research on the components of the RTT method is warranted. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

Risk Assessment of Importation and Local Transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea: Statistical Modeling Approach.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent achievements in vaccines, antiviral drugs, and medical infrastructure, the emergence of COVID-19 has posed a serious threat to humans worldwide. Most countries are well connected on a global scale, making it nearly impossible to implement perfect and prompt mitigation strategies for infectious disease outbreaks. In particular, due to the explosive growth of international travel, the complex network of human mobility enabled the rapid spread of COVID-19 globally. OBJECTIVE: South Korea was one of the earliest countries to be affected by COVID-19. In the absence of vaccines and treatments, South Korea has implemented and maintained stringent interventions, such as large-scale epidemiological investigations, rapid diagnosis, social distancing, and prompt clinical classification of severely ill patients with appropriate medical measures. In particular, South Korea has implemented effective airport screenings and quarantine measures. In this study, we aimed to assess the country-specific importation risk of COVID-19 and investigate its impact on the local transmission of COVID-19. METHODS: The country-specific importation risk of COVID-19 in South Korea was assessed. We investigated the relationships between country-specific imported cases, passenger numbers, and the severity of country-specific COVID-19 prevalence from January to October 2020. We assessed the country-specific risk by incorporating country-specific information. A renewal mathematical model was employed, considering both imported and local cases of COVID-19 in South Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the basic and effective reproduction numbers. RESULTS: The risk of importation from China was highest between January and February 2020, while that from North America (the United States and Canada) was high from April to October 2020. The R0 was estimated at 1.87 (95% CI 1.47-2.34), using the rate of α=0.07 for secondary transmission caused by imported cases. The Rt was estimated in South Korea and in both Seoul and Gyeonggi. CONCLUSIONS: A statistical model accounting for imported and locally transmitted cases was employed to estimate R0 and Rt. Our results indicated that the prompt implementation of airport screening measures (contact tracing with case isolation and quarantine) successfully reduced local transmission caused by imported cases despite passengers arriving from high-risk countries throughout the year. Moreover, various mitigation interventions, including social distancing and travel restrictions within South Korea, have been effectively implemented to reduce the spread of local cases in South Korea.

The Effects of Intervention Strategies for COVID-19 Transmission Control on Campus Activity

University is one of the most likely environments for the cluster infection due to the long-time close contact in house and frequent communication. It is critical to understand the transmission risk of COVID-19 under various scenario, especially during public health emergency. Taking the Tsinghua university's anniversary as a representative case, a set of prevention and control strategies are established and investigated. In the case study, an alumni group coming from out of campus is investigated whose activities and routes are designed based on the previous anniversary schedule. The social closeness indicator is introduced into the Wells-Riley model to consider the factor of contact frequency. Based on the anniversary scenario, this study predicts the number of the infected people in each exposure indoor location (including classroom, dining hall, meeting room and so on) and evaluates the effects of different intervention measures on reducing infection risk using the modified Wells-Riley model, such as ventilation, social distancing and wearing mask. The results demonstrate that when applying the intervention measure individually, increasing ventilation rate is found to be the most effective, whereas the efficiency of increased ventilation on reducing infection cases decreases with the increase of the ventilation rate. To better prevent COVID-19 transmission, the combined intervention measures are necessary to be taken, which show the similar effectiveness on the reduction of infected cases under different initial infector proportion. The results provide the insights into the infection risk on university campus when dealing with public health emergency and can guide university to formulate effective operational strategies to control the spread of COVID-19. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Sustaining the public health intervention strategies in confronting the Covid-19 pandemic

The most effective strategies that any society has while fighting against confronting the pandemic Covid-19 is affecting not just health but also economics, politics, and social order while fighting against its spread. The main intervention strategies in preventing the spread in any society are hand hygiene, wearing masks, social distancing and quarantine. The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of strategies and actions aim to sustain the implementation and change of a public behavior intended for facing long-term pandemics or crises. A review-research was done between August and December 2020 on some papers considering the topic of sustainability of strategies, sustainable public health actions and strategies used to face the Covid-19 and similar pandemics in various countries. This study presents the necessity to focus on strategies sustainability especially in pandemic circumstances like Covid-19. The sustainability in implementing large public health strategies is categorized by primary flexibility and vitality. The foremost intervention strategies applied to influence the community in the target of daily activities were to use enhancement guidelines, interactive educating courses, monitoring and evaluations, and dynamic involvement of stakeholders that may sustain these strategies for longer periods. Public health intervention strategies comprise different approaches depending on types of actors, shifts in the pandemic situation, contextual aspects, progress over time, and the ability for sustainability. It is necessary to guarantee that public health strategies are effectively embedded in their settings, depending on more evidence-based approaches and understanding how valuable interventions can be sustainable.

Addressing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in South Africa- moving beyond a reliance on information-based responses.

It has been over a year since South Africa officially began its national COVID-19 vaccination programme. Yet, currently only half of the adult population is fully vaccinated. While supply-related challenges continue to contribute to suboptimal vaccination coverage, so too does vaccine hesitancy. Drawing on research conducted over the last year, we highlight some overarching insights around the nature and drivers of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in South Africa and how this complex phenomenon might be addressed. We have found multiple socio-economic and political root causes of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, many of which are not knowledge-related. These include inter alia fear and uncertainty, practical challenges around access, experiences of poverty and marginalization, and the ongoing geopolitics surrounding the pandemic. Intervention strategies therefore need to form part of broader development and trust-building measures that focus on relationships, transparency, inclusion, equity and justice. This is essential if we hope to bolster acceptance of and demand for vaccines during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

Strategic Multi-criteria Decision-Making Against Pandemics Using Picture and Spherical Fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS

With the coronavirus that emerged suddenly and affected the masses, it became clear how unprepared we were for the pandemic situation both individually and at the state level. Over the past period, many different transmission prevention strategies have been implemented in different countries, and their results have been observed. Unfortunately, a complete preventive strategy has not yet been developed, and the disease continues to spread. There is a long and arduous process ahead of us in the fight against coronavirus. In order to better manage this process, this study aims to compare the strategic decisions to be taken by the states, especially during the periods when the disease spreads. The intervention strategies have a strong impact on economics, social life, health systems, and environment. As a result of intervention methods, the income of individuals, health sector, tourism sector and companies are affected economically. Yet, modeling strategic decisions under pandemic conditions is complicated since multiple factors should be considered. The uncertainties and imprecision in the evaluation process increase the complexity of the decision-making process. In this study, the decision-making procedure criteria are defined using multi-criteria decision-making methods, and the alternative strategies are compared using TOPSIS method. Picture fuzzy sets and spherical fuzzy sets are used to handle uncertainty in the decision-making process, and the results are compared. These two methods are compared based on the results and the applicability. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Understanding elder victimization and best practice intervention strategies

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report 1 in 10 adults over the age of 60 have experienced some form of abuse including neglect and exploitation. However, these statistics are an underestimate. Professionals who interact with the elderly describe being reluctant to report abuse due to a lack of knowledge of elder abuse, the reporting process, and the resources available to support victims. The invisibility of elder abuse has only increased during the 2020 COVID pandemic due to the increased social isolation of older adults and understaffed, overburdened health and social systems. Cross-disciplinary education for healthcare and social service practitioners, law enforcement, court personnel, families, and the older adults themselves is an essential component to identify and prevent elder abuse. This chapter provides an overview of elder abuse and neglect categories, risk factors, and best practice interventions advocated for addressing elder victimization. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

A study of SARS-COV-2 outbreaks in US federal prisons: the linkage between staff, incarcerated populations, and community transmission.

BACKGROUND: Since the novel coronavirus SARS-COV-2 was first identified to be circulating in the US on January 20, 2020, some of the worst outbreaks have occurred within state and federal prisons. The vulnerability of incarcerated populations, and the additional threats posed to the health of prison staff and the people they contact in surrounding communities underline the need to better understand the dynamics of transmission in the inter-linked incarcerated population/staff/community sub-populations to better inform optimal control of SARS-COV-2. METHODS: We examined SARS-CoV-2 case data from 101 non-administrative federal prisons between 5/18/2020 to 01/31/2021 and examined the per capita size of outbreaks in staff and the incarcerated population compared to outbreaks in the communities in the counties surrounding the prisons during the summer and winter waves of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We also examined the impact of decarceration on per capita rates in the staff/incarcerated/community populations. RESULTS: For both the summer and winter waves we found significant inter-correlations between per capita rates in the outbreaks among the incarcerated population, staff, and the community. Over-all during the pandemic, per capita rates were significantly higher in the incarcerated population than in both the staff and community (paired Student's t-test p = 0.03 and p < 0.001, respectively). Average per capita rates of incarcerated population outbreaks were significantly associated with prison security level, ranked from lowest per capita rate to highest: High, Minimum, Medium, and Low security. Federal prisons decreased the incarcerated population by a relative factor of 96% comparing the winter to summer wave (one SD range [90%,102%]). We found no significant impact of decarceration on per capita rates of SARS-COV-2 infection in the staff community populations, but decarceration was significantly associated with a decrease in incarcerated per capita rates during the winter wave (Negative Binomial regression p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: We found significant evidence of community/staff/incarcerated population inter-linkage of SARS-COV-2 transmission. Further study is warranted to determine which control measures aimed at the incarcerated population and/or staff are most efficacious at preventing or controlling outbreaks.

The variants question: What is the problem?

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan, China in early December 2019 has rapidly widespread worldwide. Over the course of the pandemic, due to the advance of whole-genome sequencing technologies, an unprecedented number of genomes have been generated, providing both invaluable insights into the ongoing evolution and epidemiology of the virus and allowing the identification of hundreds of circulating genetic variants during the pandemic. In recent months variants of SARS-CoV-2 that have an increased number of mutations on the Spike protein have brought concern all over the world. These have been called "variants of concerns" (VOCs), and/or "variants of interests" (VOIs) as it has been suggested that their genome mutations might impact transmission, immune control, and virulence. Tracking the spread of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants is crucial to inform public health efforts and control the ongoing pandemic. In this review, a concise characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 mutational patterns of the main VOCs and VOIs circulating and cocirculating worldwide has been presented to determine the magnitude of the SARS-CoV-2 threat to better understand the virus genetic diversity and its potential impact on vaccination strategy.

A Review of COVID-19 Modelling Strategies in Three Countries to Develop a Research Framework for Regional Areas.

At the end of December 2019, an outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan city, China. Modelling plays a crucial role in developing a strategy to prevent a disease outbreak from spreading around the globe. Models have contributed to the perspicacity of epidemiological variations between and within nations and the planning of desired control strategies. In this paper, a literature review was conducted to summarise knowledge about COVID-19 disease modelling in three countries-China, the UK and Australia-to develop a robust research framework for the regional areas that are urban and rural health districts of New South Wales, Australia. In different aspects of modelling, summarising disease and intervention strategies can help policymakers control the outbreak of COVID-19 and may motivate modelling disease-related research at a finer level of regional geospatial scales in the future.

Airborne infection risks of SARS-CoV-2 in U.S. schools and impacts of different intervention strategies.

The potential airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has triggered concerns as schools continue to reopen and resume in-person instruction during the current COVID-19 pandemic. It is critical to understand the risks of airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission under different epidemiological scenarios and operation strategies for schools to make informed decisions to mitigate infection risk. Through scenario-based analysis, this study estimates the airborne infection risk of SARS-CoV-2 in 111,485 U.S. public and private schools and evaluates the impacts of different intervention strategies, including increased ventilation, air filtration, and hybrid learning. Schools in more than 90% of counties exhibit infection risk of higher than 1%, indicating the significance of implementing intervention strategies. Among the considered strategies, air filtration is found to be most effective: the school average infection risk when applying MERV 13 is over 30% less than the risk levels correlating with the use of increased ventilation and hybrid learning strategies, respectively. For most schools, it is necessary to adopt combined intervention strategies to ensure the infection risk below 1%. The results provide insights into airborne infection risk in schools under various scenarios and may guide schools and policymakers in developing effective operations strategies to maintain environmental health.

Homebound by COVID19: the benefits and consequences of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies.

BACKGROUND: Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g., reduction in infection spread and deaths) of NPIs for COVID19 and being homebound (i.e., refraining from interactions outside of the household). METHODS: An agent-based simulation model, which captures the natural history of the disease at the individual level, and the infection spread via a contact network assuming heterogeneous population mixing in households, peer groups (workplaces, schools), and communities, is adapted to project the disease spread and estimate the number of homebound people and person-days under multiple scenarios, including combinations of shelter-in-place, voluntary quarantine, and school closure in Georgia from March 1 to September 1, 2020. RESULTS: Compared to no intervention, under voluntary quarantine, voluntary quarantine with school closure, and shelter-in-place with school closure scenarios 4.5, 23.1, and 200+ homebound adult-days were required to prevent one infection, with the maximum number of adults homebound on a given day in the range of 119 K-248 K, 465 K-499 K, 5388 K-5389 K, respectively. Compared to no intervention, school closure only reduced the percentage of the population infected by less than 16% while more than doubling the peak number of adults homebound. CONCLUSIONS: Voluntary quarantine combined with school closure significantly reduced the number of infections and deaths with a considerably smaller number of homebound person-days compared to shelter-in-place.

The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

It has been reported that the transmission of COVID-19 can be influenced by the variation of environmental factors due to the seasonal cycle. However, its underlying mechanism in the current and onward transmission pattern remains unclear owing to the limited data and difficulties in separating the impacts of social distancing. Understanding the role of seasonality in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is imperative in formulating public health interventions. Here, the seasonal signals of the COVID-19 time series are extracted using the EEMD method, and a modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered (SEIR) model incorporated with seasonal factors is introduced to quantify its impact on the current COVID-19 pandemic. Seasonal signals decomposed via the EEMD method indicate that infectivity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 are both higher in colder climates. The quantitative simulation shows that the cold season in the Southern Hemisphere countries caused a 59.71 ± 8.72% increase of the total infections, while the warm season in the Northern Hemisphere countries contributed to a 46.38 ± 29.10% reduction. COVID-19 seasonality is more pronounced at higher latitudes, where larger seasonal amplitudes of environmental indicators are observed. Seasonality alone is not sufficient to curb the virus transmission to an extent that intervention measures are no longer needed, but health care capacity should be scaled up in preparation for new surges in COVID-19 cases in the upcoming cold season. Our study highlights the necessity of considering seasonal factors when formulating intervention strategies.

Impact assessment of full and partial stay-at-home orders, face mask usage, and contact tracing: An agent-based simulation study of COVID-19 for an urban region.

PURPOSE: Social intervention strategies to mitigate COVID-19 are examined using an agent-based simulation model. Outbreak in a large urban region, Miami-Dade County, Florida, USA is used as a case study. Results are intended to serve as a planning guide for decision makers. METHODS: The simulation model mimics daily social mixing behavior of the susceptible and infected generating the spread. Data representing demographics of the region, virus epidemiology, and social interventions shapes model behavior. Results include daily values of infected, reported, hospitalized, and dead. RESULTS: Results show that early implementation of complete stay-at-home order is effective in flattening and reversing the infection growth curve in a short period of time. Whereas, using Florida's Phase II plan alone could result in 75% infected and end of pandemic via herd immunity. Universal use of face masks reduced infected by 20%. A further reduction of 66% was achieved by adding contact tracing with a target of identifying 50% of the asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of a vaccine, the strict stay-at-home order, though effective in curbing a pandemic outbreak, leaves a large proportion of the population susceptible. Hence, there should be a strong follow up plan of social distancing, use of face mask, contact tracing, testing, and isolation of infected to minimize the chances of large-scale resurgence of the disease. However, as the economic cost of the complete stay-at-home-order is very high, it can perhaps be used only as an emergency first response, and the authorities should be prepared to activate a strong follow up plan as soon as possible. The target level for contact tracing was shown to have a nonlinear impact on the reduction of the percentage of population infected. Increase in contact tracing target from 20% to 30% appeared to provide the largest incremental benefit.